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Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 16 brokers · 366 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-21.

The street models KKR as an annuity with a cyclical option attached. Fee-related earnings compound in the mid-to-high teens through FY-2028 on a margin that widens in every modeled year, and the 16-broker panel barely disagrees about it. The disagreement, and the FY-2026 inflection, sits in the monetization lines: realized performance income, realized investment income and capital markets fees. Fee rates stay flat across the horizon, so the fee build is a volume story rather than a pricing one.

The build is ordinary in the best sense: management fees compound, fee-related compensation grows more slowly, and the margin grinds higher in every modeled year. Fee-related earnings per adjusted share runs $4.83 in FY-2026 to $6.37 in FY-2028. None of this sequence depends on markets cooperating.

Line FY-2025A FY-2026E FY-2027E FY-2028E YoY Brokers
Fee revenue — — — — — —
Management fees $4.06bn $4.87bn $5.52bn $6.27bn +19.9% 16
Transaction and monitoring fees net $1.13bn $1.11bn $1.40bn $1.61bn -2.0% 16
Fee-related performance revenues $183.61m $408.92m $496.34m $574.79m +122.7% 16
Total fee-related revenue $5.38bn $6.39bn $7.42bn $8.45bn +18.8% 16
Costs — — — — — —
Fee-related compensation $940.16m $1.12bn $1.29bn $1.47bn +19.1% 16
Earnings — — — — — —
Fee-related earnings $3.72bn $4.44bn $5.21bn $5.97bn +19.2% 16
Fee-related earnings margin(%) 69.2% 69.5% 70.2% 70.6% +0.2pt 16
Fee-related earnings per adjusted share($) $4.14 $4.83 $5.57 $6.37 +16.7% 16

The inflection is monetization: realized performance income jumps 68% in FY-2026, and private equity supplies it

Private equity carries the recovery, up 77% in FY-2026, while credit and real assets carry stays small. Realized performance income compensation absorbs roughly seven-tenths of the gross line in every modeled year, so the net figure is the one that matters. Capital markets fees are flat in FY-2026 before turning up 26% in FY-2027.

Line FY-2025A FY-2026E FY-2027E FY-2028E YoY Brokers
Realized carry — — — — — —
Realized performance income $1.97bn $3.32bn $3.91bn $4.23bn +68.1% 16
Realized performance income - Private equity $1.47bn $2.60bn $2.98bn $3.35bn +76.9% 14
Realized performance income - Real assets $281.76m $410.60m $601.86m $614.52m +45.7% 14
Realized performance income - Credit and Liquid Strategies $260.71m $303.10m $355.26m $358.25m +16.3% 14
Net to KKR — — — — — —
Realized performance income compensation $1.42bn $2.36bn $2.78bn $3.00bn +66.3% 16
Net realized performance income $553.20m $955.61m $1.13bn $1.23bn +72.7% 16
Other realized — — — — — —
Realized investment income $433.03m $633.00m $882.75m $1.11bn +46.2% 14
Transaction fees - Capital markets $953.28m $940.11m $1.19bn $1.40bn -1.4% 15

Brokers agree on the annuity and split on the cash-out

The same 16-broker panel sits within a few percent on FY-2027 fee-related earnings; the divergence is concentrated in the lines below. Realized investment income is the widest, its top of range close to three times the bottom, and real assets carry is skewed by a single high estimate.

Line Period Median Q1–Q3 Min–max Brokers
Realized investment income FY-2027E $775.61m $680.22m–$989.51m $602.32m–$1.76bn 14
Realized performance income - Real assets FY-2027E $523.46m $463.33m–$597.19m $376.70m–$1.58bn 14
Fee-related performance revenues FY-2027E $523.75m $447.19m–$575.61m $270.00m–$701.89m 16
Realized performance income - Private equity FY-2027E $2.98bn $2.63bn–$3.28bn $2.24bn–$4.01bn 14
Transaction fees - Capital markets FY-2027E $1.18bn $1.10bn–$1.29bn $917.05m–$1.36bn 15

Growth is volume, not price: fee rates hold at 0.76% while fee-paying AUM compounds

Credit and Liquid Strategies contributes the largest fee-paying inflows in every modeled year. Private equity inflows fall 30% in FY-2026 before recovering 26% in FY-2027, which reads as fundraising cadence rather than a structural break. Blended and segment fee rates are essentially unchanged across the horizon.

Line FY-2025A FY-2026E FY-2027E FY-2028E YoY Brokers
Fee-paying inflows — — — — — —
Inflows - FPAUM - Credit and Liquid Strategies $60.30bn $52.61bn $63.54bn $75.46bn -12.7% 15
Inflows - FPAUM - Private equity $35.50bn $24.74bn $31.15bn $28.72bn -30.3% 15
Inflows - FPAUM - Real assets $29.54bn $31.95bn $33.79bn $42.88bn +8.2% 15
Inflows - FPAUM $125.68bn $109.54bn $129.04bn $147.06bn -12.8% 13
Outflows & balance — — — — — —
Outflows - FPAUM $-49.43bn $-55.44bn $-56.72bn $-67.34bn -12.2% 13
End of period - FPAUM $601.93bn $675.08bn $763.59bn $866.93bn +12.2% 14
Fee rates — — — — — —
Total management fee margin(%) 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% +0.0pt 14
Management fee margin - Credit and Liquid Strategies(%) 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% +0.0pt 15
Management fees rate - Private equity(%) 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% +0.0pt 15
Management fees rate - Real assets(%) 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% +0.0pt 15

Global Atlantic is modeled to trough in FY-2026, not to break

Global Atlantic ROAE is modeled at 9.08% in FY-2026, below FY-2025's 11.38%, then recovers to 10.24% in FY-2027 and 11.62% in FY-2028. Insurance operating earnings trace the same path, dipping this year before two years of growth, while modeled Global Atlantic book value rises throughout. Brokers are treating this as a returns reset on a growing book, not a contraction.

FY-2028 rests on roughly half the panel that covers FY-2026 and FY-2027

Most FY-2026 and FY-2027 lines carry 14 to 16 brokers; the FY-2028 column typically falls to 7 or 8, and segment carry lines to 5 or 6. Read the final year as a smaller sample rather than a firmer view. Vintage is not the issue here: the consensus file is dated 2026-07-23 and the lines used above were revised 2026-07-21.

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.