KKR & Co. Inc.Full report →1 / 13
KKRNYSEThe short version

KKR & Co. Inc.

KKR & Co. is a New York investment firm that manages $744 billion for pension funds, insurers and individuals, charging management fees plus a share of investment profits, and owns the annuity insurer Global Atlantic.

Nineteen years of closes, NYSE-listed since July 2010: $167.07 at the 31 January 2025 peak, $83.88 at the 12 March 2026 low, $102.66 on 28 July 2026.
P/E FY27E 14.0×
$102.66
Close, 28 Jul 2026
$92.5B
Market value
2.88%
Adjusted FCF yield, FY2025
$744B
Assets under management
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IThe business
What KKR sells

KKR manages $744bn of other people's capital and charges about 74 basis points a year to do it

Assets under management
The 2021 step is the consolidation of Global Atlantic. Private equity was over 70% of AUM in 2010 and under 25% in 2025.
  • The fee engine. $604.1bn of the $743.9bn of AUM pays fees, at a blended 0.735%. Management fees reached $4,100.8m in FY2025 and fee-related earnings $3,714.3m — a 69% margin on 5,043 employees.
  • The carry. On top of fees KKR takes a share of investment profits. Gross accrued carry plus balance-sheet gains stood at $18.3bn on 31 March 2026; realized carried interest was $720m in that quarter alone.
  • The insurer. Global Atlantic, bought outright in January 2024, holds $219bn of the AUM and serves 3.5 million policyholders — annuity and reinsurance liabilities that KKR's own credit platform invests.
Blended rate is FY2025 management fees over average fee-paying AUM.
Where the profit sits

Insurance is 60% of revenue and 19% of segment earnings; asset management runs the other way

FY2025 by segment, segment basis
SegmentRevenueSegment earningsShare of earnings
Asset management$7,835.5m$4,549.0m77%
Insurance$11,628.8m$1,109.4m19%
Strategic Holdingsnot disclosed$232.0m4%
Total segment earnings $5,890.3m.
  • Revenue misleads here. Insurance revenue is gross premium and investment income, struck before policyholder benefits; asset-management revenue is fees and carry against a compensation ratio.
  • Most of the balance sheet is not KKR's. FY2025 consolidated net income was $6,145.4m, of which $3,774.9m went to noncontrolling interests and $2,370.5m to KKR — $2.34 per diluted share.
  • The people own it too. Employees hold roughly 30% of the common stock assuming exchange of vested equity; directors and executive officers alone held 23.20%, worth $21.2bn at $102.66.
IIIThe story now
The fit

Does not fit the framework (P1 not met); contested: X1, X2, X3, X4, S1

0.66
P1 year-10 durability, not met4 of 4 seats; spread 0.10
2.88%
Adjusted yield vs the 10% line712 bps short
0.76
Impairment temporary (P5), metcarried from the trial
Low
Confidence tierfive criteria contested
P1 is the only pure gate: year-10 revenue and free cash flow higher, with very high conviction. Nothing offsets it.
  • The gate, and why. The measure the system uses to underwrite year-10 cash flow cannot be computed for KKR in any year, so conviction falls to five structural sources: one applies, three are partial, one does not.
  • The strongest fact against that. 92% of $743.9bn of AUM is contracted eight years or longer or is perpetual, and fee-related earnings rose from $1,080m in FY2019 to $3,714m in FY2025 with no down year.
  • It is not a quality call. No exclusion hit and no sensitivity flag were recorded, the diagnosis came back temporary at 0.76, and delivered earnings rose through the drawdown.
The dislocation

The stock fell 49.8%, from $167.07 in January 2025 to $83.88 on 12 March 2026

Monthly close from the January 2025 peak
Month-end closes; March 2026 is shown at the 12 March low of $83.88.
  • The break is dated. On 3 February 2026 the stock fell 9.69% on 11.5m shares — 4.02x the pre-peak median — with no KKR filing on the tape. Peak 20-session volume reached 3.93x the median, against a 2x reference line.
  • Insiders bought into it. Both co-CEOs bought 175,000 shares each between 17 and 27 February 2026; five insiders spent $50.9m of their own money between 9 February and 4 March.
  • The counter-fact. The volume spike ended nine days before the low, and a second 16.0% fall from 22 April to 29 June 2026 came on 1.6x volume — drift rather than a second capitulation.
Damage math

Consensus was cut about 9%; the price was cut 27% — and delivered earnings went up

Change from 29 January 2026
Consensus vintages dated 29 January and 28 July 2026.
  • The gap. Across the trigger window the price destroyed $11.06bn of market value against $3.50bn of probability-weighted NPV damage — a $7.56bn gap, 7.3% of the pre-trigger market value.
  • The counter-fact. Read the 9.3% cut as fully permanent and NPV damage becomes $9.64bn against $11.06bn of price damage — a gap of 1.4%. Against the news it responded to, the market did not obviously overreact.
  • The move is multiple, not earnings. Adjusted net income per share went from $4.70 to $4.87 across the drawdown. The trailing multiple went from 35.5x at the peak to 16.8x forward now.
The year-10 gate

One of the framework's five conviction sources applies in full; three are partial, one does not

Conviction sources for year-10 durability
SourceGradeEvidence
Market structurePartialKKR is 14.6% of the $5.1tn top-six AUM pool; largest firm 25.6%
Regulatory barriersPartialEntry is gated in insurance — 22% of operating earnings; the rest is Advisers Act registration
Capital intensityDoes not apply$160.8m of fixed-asset spend against $4,100.8m of management fees
Essential productPartialLP allocations are discretionary; 92% of AUM is contracted 8 years or perpetual
Operating historyAppliesFounded 1976; survived 1989-90, 2001, 2008-09; public only since 2010
  • The measure is missing. Adjusted free cash flow is not computable for KKR in any year, and GAAP cannot stand in: FY2025 operating cash flow of $477.8m is struck after $42.9bn of the funds' own investment purchases.
  • What the lock does cover. $684bn of AUM is contracted eight years or longer, with $118.4bn of uncalled commitments not yet paying fees. Every fee measure KKR reports has risen in each of seven years.
  • Where the doubt sits. An eight-year lock is a floor under the first eight years of a ten-year question; years nine and ten depend on re-upping in an industry KKR's own filing calls intensely competitive.
Self-help

The share count has risen 8.5% a year since 2019, which this framework treats as a hard fail

Basic weighted-average shares
Diluted shares ran from 557.7m to 955.8m over the same period, 9.4% a year.
  • The buyback was never the engine. Repurchases across 2018-2025 total $1,401m of cash — 1.5% of today's market value, or 0.19% a year, with FY2024 at nil and FY2025 at $3.4m.
  • The absurdity check runs backwards. At $102.66 it takes 25.0 years of adjusted cash earnings to retire the float, against a roughly three-year reference — 96 years at KKR's fastest repurchase pace.
  • The counter-fact. In Q1 2026 KKR bought 2,173,970 shares against 578 equity awards retired, and spent $317m through 1 May at about $91. Weighted-average shares still rose 0.33% year-over-year.
What is contested

Five exclusion criteria split three ways on labels while their written reasoning agrees

Contested criteria and the jury split
IDTestSeats A / B / C
X1Auto OEMnot_met / no_hit / met
X2Promotion patternnot_met / no_hit / met
X3Structural declinenot_met / no_hit / met
X4Consensus-saturated storynot_met / no_hit / met
S1China dependencenot_met / no_hit / met
  • No exclusion fired. The tally's exclusion-hits array is empty. Seat A's not_met and seat B's no_hit say the same thing in different words; seat C's met records the screen as passed, not the exclusion as firing.
  • What the split costs. Cross-family agreement is false on all five, and the name-masked seat diverged on X1 through X4 — which carries the prior-driven-risk flag and the low confidence tier.
  • One test could not be run at all. P2, five-year FCF stability, came back cannot-determine from every seat: the rolling five-year adjusted-FCF series is empty in the feature file.
IVThe price
Yield versus the bar

The framework-basis adjusted yield is 2.88%, some 712 basis points short of the 10% line

Adjusted yield, measured six ways, against the moderate reference line
  • The arithmetic. FY2025 adjusted net income of $4,377.5m less $722.1m of equity-based compensation less $986.6m of five-year average acquisition spend gives $2,668.8m, over $92,544m of market value.
  • Consensus does not close it. Normalized EPS of $6.12, $7.35 and $8.60 for FY2026-28 gives framework-basis yields of 4.11%, 5.31% and 6.53% at $102.66. No forecast year on file clears the bar.
  • The counter-fact is the denominator. Q1 2026 fee-related earnings of $1,016.4m were up 23.6% year-over-year, total operating earnings up 19.1%. The yield is small because the price is high, not because earnings fell.
Net recourse debt of $4,445.4m at 0.75x Adjusted EBITDA puts KKR in the moderate class, which selects the 10% line rather than 8-9% or 25%.
The re-rating math

Putting the yield on the 10% line takes a price between $30 and $86, against $102.66 today

Price at a 10% adjusted yield, by earnings basis
  • Or the earnings arrive instead. Reaching 10% at $102.66 needs FY2028 framework EPS of $10.27 — headline $12.17 — which is 41.5% above the $8.60 consensus mean and 32.2% above the $9.20 consensus high.
  • The tally carries no re-rating figure. Its re-rating block is null on every field because the applicable bar and normalized adjusted FCF are missing; the prices above come from the filed segment measures instead.
  • Three times the price, as arithmetic. $307.98 within three years is 35.8x FY2028 headline consensus — about the 35.5x trailing multiple the stock carried at its January 2025 peak, with consensus delivered on top.
Base rates

KKR's five completed drawdowns ran 33.9% to 57.7% deep, on a median 22.3-month round trip

Peak-to-trough depth, NYSE-era drawdowns of 25% or more
The 2007-09 fall of 93.7% sits in the record but not the base rate: it was the Euronext-listed predecessor, at a different scale and business mix.
  • Where this one sits. The current episode is the second deepest of the six and took 13.3 months to reach its low. At $102.66 it is 22.4% above that low, 38.6% below the peak, and 4.5 months past the trough.
  • What a round trip is worth. Regaining $167.07 from here is +62.7%, not +200%. Median time from trough back to the prior peak is 14.5 months across the five completed episodes; the slowest took 28.7.
  • The nearest test is dated. Q2 2026 results were scheduled for 30 July 2026, a day after this report closed — realized carry against the $720m Q1 run-rate and forward monetization against $1.2bn are unobserved.
What to watch

Nothing in the drawdown was earnings damage; the gate that decides this test is about the next ten years

Read the full report →

This distills a fixed fit test built tab by tab — business, dislocation, damage, yield, durability, self-help and clock — against one investor's stated reference lines.

Compiled from the full report · 2026-07-29 · For information, not investment advice.